CAFC: Success/Motivation Record Intertwined in Predictable Arts
As borne out by historical PTAB statistics, and not unexpectedly so, patents in the unpredictable arts are more likely to withstand PTAB scrutiny as compared to patents in the predictable arts. For example, formulating a pharmaceutical has a lot more variables and unknowns than adding a drop-down menu to a particular computer interface. The latter requiring only a change in computer code. For this reason a successful obviousness challenge in the unpredictable arts typically requires far more evidence/effort on such showings as “expectations of success” in combing prior art references.
That is not to say that Patent Owners in the predictable arts should forego potential arguments on expectation of success. Rather, such Patent Owners need to be mindful that an expectation of success argument may have a limited shelf-life.